Black Friday may bring the customer.

Adobe forecasts a record $275.1 billion in U.S. online holiday spending across November and December, up 6.7% from last year, with discounts reaching as much as 30% during Cyber Week. Deloitte expects the average household to spend $1,654 this season, up 4%. The money is there. The harder question is how many of the customers it brings in will still be buying in the spring.

Shoppers are hunting for value

Deloitte's 2026 Holiday Retail Survey of 4,000 U.S. consumers found that 38% of shoppers qualify as "holiday value seekers," using five or more ways to save. They aren't spending less: value seekers expect to spend 12% more than other shoppers, and they tend to start early and shop throughout the season. Four in 10 shoppers plan to shop October sales events, close to the 44% who plan to shop Cyber Monday.

Loyalty is fragile under that pressure. In Deloitte's 2025 holiday research, 65% of consumers said they would consider switching brands if their preferred option seemed too expensive. Deloitte also notes that value isn't only about price: quality, service and trust shape how shoppers judge it, too.

A discount wins the first order, not the customer

Deep holiday promotions are good at getting someone to try you. They say much less about whether that person will come back at full price. A customer who arrives for 30% off and leaves with no reason to return can make Cyber Week look strong and the first quarter look thin.

A customer-centric plan treats the holiday purchase as the start of a relationship, not the end of a campaign. That means deciding before the season starts what happens after the order: what the customer hears from you, what you offer next and how you'll know whether it worked.

Four things to consider

1. Know who you're acquiring

Make sure you can tell new customers from returning ones, and see which channels and offers brought each in. Without that view, a strong season can hide the fact that much of its revenue came from discounting customers you already had.

2. Plan the first 30 to 60 days

Map what happens after the first purchase, from order updates and onboarding to service and a relevant next offer. The weeks after the holidays are when a new customer decides whether you were a one-time deal or a brand worth coming back to.

3. Weigh the cost of the discount

Ask whether each promotion builds loyalty or teaches customers to wait for the next sale. Rewarding the second purchase, adding value through service or exclusives, and saving the deepest offers for the moments that matter most can all protect margin and the brand.

4. Judge success over time

Measure repeat purchases and customer value over the months that follow, not just Cyber Week revenue. Agree on those measures before the season starts, so the post-holiday review is about the customers you kept, not only the sales you made.

Give them a reason to come back

The brands that win the holidays won't be the ones with the deepest discounts. They'll be the ones that give customers a reason to return. Black Friday is about a month away, which still leaves time to plan the second purchase alongside the first. We would start there.

Questions to ask your team

• Can we tell new holiday customers from returning ones, and where each came from?

• What does a new customer hear from us in the 60 days after their first order?

• Are our promotions building loyalty, or training customers to wait for a sale?

• How will we measure repeat purchases and customer value after the season?